> has a huge impact,
> is retrospectively thought of as predictable and fully explainable.
There are two types of black swan: positive and negative. Positive black swans are like winning the lottery, negative black swans are like taking part in a 50-victim traffic acccident. You may win the lottery, but if you do not - you lose almost nothing. In a traffic accident, even if you are not one of the victims, you lose something – some time, some nerves, some money (car repairs, higher insurance renewal rates etc.). In a traffic accident you always lose.
Let us think about humankind. What are we to expect: positive black swans, negative black swans or a mix? Global warming is bad as too many big cities and areas will be flooded by the oceans. Global cold is bad too, especially if we take into account the fossil fuel depletion. No matter how Mother Nature decides to surprise us, we will find the surprise unpleasant.